For a matter of time, it appeared as if the Summer (and Fall) of Trump was preparing to fade. Dr. Ben Carson had been on the rise nationally and in Iowa, he took the lead. However, Trump has proved yet again why the nickname of Teflon Don is one of the most accurate descriptions of his campaign as Carson has fallen nationally and in the first caucus state.
National polls released Sunday both show Trump with a ten point lead over his nearest competitor, Carson. In the Fox News poll, Trump is in the upper 20s while he is in the lower 30s in the poll from ABC News/Washington Post.
The RealClearPolitics average has Trump with a roughly five point lead over Carson in Iowa while the latest poll from CBS News/YouGov shows Trump with a nine point lead.
For Iowa, Carson held the lead in the RCP average for roughly two weeks. Then Trump took the lead with one-half of a percentage point. The latest update on Sunday showed Trump breaking away.
Nationally, Trump has been more consistent as the leader. Carson held the RCP national lead for three days in early November before beginning to fall.
Even though Trump rose as Carson fell, Carson was not losing supporters to Trump. In Iowa, one-fourth of Carson’s supporters defected to Senator Ted Cruz’s camp. The CBS/YouGov poll also showed Carson in third place behind Cruz.
Carson has suffered over the past days and weeks as scrutiny has focused in on his record. In addition, the national conversation has shifted to national security following the Paris terror attacks. National security and international policy has not been one of Carson’s strong suits and his advisors have complained about teaching him the material. In Iowa, forty-three percent of Republican voters told CBS and YouGov that the terror attacks affected their votes a lot or somewhat.