When the results come in there will be no toss-up states. The states will be blue or red. In 2008, then-Senator Obama got 365 electoral votes to Senator John McCain’s 173. If a candidate breaks 300 electoral votes, the race is not considered close electorally. Now the question is whether President Obama, or Mitt Romney, can get 300 electoral votes. If you take the current leader of state-by-state polling and award the state’s electoral votes to them, then President Obama gets 303 electoral votes. Mitt Romney gets 235. We assumed that President Obama would get all of Maine’s electoral votes and Mitt Romney all of Nebraska’s. Nebraska and Maine split up their electoral votes by congressional districts. Most people expect the race to be close, by votes. FiveThirtyEight, a political statistics blog by the New York Times, puts the popular vote at 50.5%, Obama, and 48.4%, Romney. But in the end, it’s the electoral college that picks Presidents.
