It appears that Michigan is truly a toss-up. The New York Times’ statistical political blog, FiveThirtyEight, predicts that Mitt Romney will win by two points, and says he has a sixty-four percent chance of winning. However a CNN poll released today shows that Rick Santorum is still leading in the state, however by one point. Rick Santorum’s has had a minuscule lead for a few days, further proving the point of Michigan being a toss-up. Michigan has been deemed pivotal by Mitt Romney’s campaign and analysts since Mitt Romney grew up in Michigan as the son of an auto executive and governor. The state was expected to go easily for Mitt Romney, but Rick Santorum’s trifecta caused him to have new momentum.
Michigan’s primary is unique because delegates are awarded by district. So Mitt Romney could win the state, but Rick Santorum could come out the true winner by delegates. If Mitt Romney wins in two districts that carry him to a state win, he will only get the delegates for those two districts. The winner of the other districts would get their delegates.
But, no matter what happens, Rick Santorum may not have to wait very long for a win. He is expected to very good on Super Tuesday in states such as Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Ohio. Newt Gingrich is expected to win his home state of Georgia which is the biggest catch of Super Tuesday. So the question comes, does it really matter who wins tomorrow?