Speaker Boehner told reporters today that he would not bring any immigration bill to the floor unless it has the support of a majority of Republicans, aka the Hastert Rule. This could potentially kill any and all immigration bills, as the Tea Party has opposed them, seeing it as amnesty and giving the Democrats more votes. While the more moderate Senate is expected to pass immigration reform, the Senate bill does not seem as likely. This announcement by Speaker Boehner appears to be the nail on the coffin. The best hope for those supporting reform is that the Senate passes the bill with strong bipartisan support. That would, in some analysts’ eyes, would either shame Boehner in bringing up the bill or convince Republicans to support it. However, it is important to remember the fiscal cliff bill in this scenario. Even though the Senate had passed a tax relief bill overwhelmingly, the House wasn’t sure whether or not to even bring it up for a vote. When they did, not only did Republicans mostly vote nay, Republican leadership was split.
Some immigration reform proponents believe that they still have a chance in the House’s immigration bill. There is a bipartisan bill in the works, however it has not been unveiled yet. Recently, Rep. Raúl Labrador left the House group over policy disagreements regarding undocumented immigrants and health care. His leaving could give other Republicans to vote against the bill.